Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Testing Dr Mahathir's prediction: Outcome

I set up a poll last week with the intention of

Testing Dr Mahathir's prediction

that Barisan Nasional may lose the next general election (GE14).

GE14 is to be held less than three years from now.

The poll (on the top right corner of this web page) closed just now.

A total of 518 people took part over the seven-day period of the poll. Thanks to all of them.

The question was:

If the status quo of BN and Pakatan remains till GE14, how will you cast your vote?


The outcome was,

- 103 (about 19 per cent) will vote for BN

- 133 (about 25 per cent) will vote for Pakatan

- 282 (about 54 per cent) will refrain from voting

Bear in mind that this is a pro-establishment blog.

Well, some had even not too long ago labelled this blog as being pro-Najib.

Therefore I would like to believe that there are many more pro-establishment readers here than those who support the opposition.

The most significant aspect of the outcome was of course the huge percentage of those who will refrain from casting their vote if the status quo remains.

It's not a good sign for BN.

Pakatan even got more thumbs up than BN in the poll.

I don't think there were that many occasions when Pakatan beats BN in a poll set up by a pro-establishment blog.

Yes, based on the outcome of the little poll, Dr Mahathir's prediction that BN may lose GE14 may comes true if things continue as they were now.


BN, in particular Umno may have no problem to maintain the status quo, but they should also know that the ordinary rakyat are watching.

I don't think PM DS Najib Razak doesn't see the danger heading towards him and the rest of Umno.

I'm hoping that he already has a really good plan on how to deal with these sorts of crisis. The last time I checked, the plan (if you can call it such) was not so good.

And all those opportunists jostling for positions think they can continue to piggyback ride Najib forever by selling themselves as kunun nya berjuang untuk agama, bangsa dan tanahair.

31 comments:

  1. Najib is not a bad man.
    Just poor leader.
    He should step down and save UMNO.

    Argonite.

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  2. hes too busy getting his ass kissed. quite literally at tht seeing how ur fav kj actually were really close to his ass the pemuda julang najib yesterday.

    he thinks he'll stay as pm after next pru if the guys in umno supports him. and thts assuming all the grass roots are rooting for him.

    he really didnt see how much voters actually hate him now.

    so whts next? perhimpunan rakyat soladiriti najib? how about we do perhimpunan rakyat najib berundur in support for tun m. let see who gets larger crowd. if najib doesnt resign after tht he really is just an anak bangsawan who doesnt have a clue wht rakyat marhein thinks nor does he care.

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    Replies
    1. No, not the kind of Pakatan's 'Najib-Undur'. A perhimpunan 'sokong Dr.M' would be enough. No need to ask Najib to resign. That message was already made known to him by Dr.M, AKadir Jasin, Syed Akbar Ali, Apanama, etc. We cannot be seen as anti-anybody or anti-BN.

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  3. You should have included an option "Vote for an independent candidate if available" as that is what I did in the last GE.

    Anyway, Internet polls on an English language website are not the best measure given that most of those who access them are generally English literate, educated, middle-class urbanites, rather than voters from the mostly rural and lower income groups from the BN heartlands. Therefore, the results of such polls tend to be skewed in favour of the opposition.

    However, the factors which can shidt the sentiments of voters in the BN heartlands against the BN are economic factors such as the rising cost of living, especially when it is due to the effects of the introduction of the GST at such a high level, rather than gradually, such as three percent at first, rising slowly to 6%.

    As I had stated earlier here or on another blog, if PAS distances itself from the Pakatan or even spits away completely, it could result in three cornered fights in many constituencies, including those in the BN heartlands, which would produce rather interesting outcomes, including a minority government or a hung parliament for whichever party wins the largest minority of seats in parliament, such as 45%, 30% and 25%. Such a government would find it hard to rule effectively, with say the party which won 25% having the deciding say.

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    Replies
    1. fully agree with you bro/sis

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    2. Yes, I agree with IT Scheiss
      If the status-remain, Konsensus BEBAS or independent candidates would be abound, GE14. And they should start campaigning early, at least a year.

      Delete
    3. Going by IT Scheiss' argument, then the majority of readers of this blog should be PRO-ESTABLISMENT English literate, educated, middle-class urbanites, who according to the poll were not very happy with the status quo. Don't you think the kampung folks will not be infected by such unhappiness within these next two year before GE14?

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    4. you are half right dear IT Scheiss...

      yes..we are all english literate middle class people but not forget where we come from. we have families at kampung too. we have friends from rural area too and we can easily tell them what is happening right now.

      yes..we are pro establishment but once you 'kacau' our pocket for your own wrongdoing...GST for instance... you'll get the curse from us. and GE14 will be the ultimate tsunami from us. wait and see..

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    5. The 'Kampong folks', I mean pro-BN, should have realized since Dr.M made those calls for Najib to resign. That Najib is worst than Pak Lah. To them, Dr.M is highly respected. Anyway, kampong folks today is not like what it was 20 years ago. With i-phones and the alternative media, elderly people should have seen images or news of Rosmah extravagance, NFC, 1MDB, Altantuya, Najib's predilection for consultants and middleman (like Razak Baginda and Jho Low) for government activities.
      Anyway, they are not too naive, you know.

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    6. The kampung folks not naive, arrange weddings for 6+ children Sdr RD
      but are highly dependent on the kampung YBs who visits, delivers and listen. In Melaka PKR candidates by comparison are parachuted just before GE.

      My neighbours goat dies of diarrhea one night, and he straight away pays the YB a visit !

      Parliamentary-seat-rich East Malaysia:
      More so our inland Dayak, Kadazan-DM cousins who are still in development politics, read $ mode we need to go back to our peninsula kampungs of 20-years before of ole. kan?


      Haji M Zin
      Kg Melekek Luar, 78000 Alor Gajah


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    7. Are you joking, Haji M Zin.

      I've never heard of Village folks marring their young at 6+. I thought they do it in Afghanistan or somewhere else. In Sabah, there was a case of a 9 year old being married off to a guy who raped her to escape the law.

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    8. Erratum: Sorry for the confusion.

      Its many kampung folks having many children (>6) Sdr RD
      and they're all are so well capable to plan and elaborate Bertunangs and weddings for each one .. clearer?

      NB. Weddings: I'm exhausted after just our two, sans bertunang heheh.


      Haji M Zin
      Alor Gajah DPH

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  4. Most of not all your blog readers are pro-establishment. The result of your poll will be the same outcome even if being multiplied no matter how many thousand times. Najib is INCOMPETENT thus he doesn't know to make decision and rely fully on his consultants who wants Najib to stay as long as possible,as they are the ones who are benefiting. The equation is Dumb PM= Smart Consultants.And it seems that all their strategies from day 1 till now not only did not work but worst still the results backfired.

    Zack

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    Replies
    1. Don't Underestimate the Bangsawan. Gua Tolong Lu - Lu Tolong Gua may still work. Question is what is he offering to Tun M?

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    2. Bro. to me it's more like the greedy cunning PM begets sub-standard ministers to stay relevant, and he pumps in rakyat money to dress himself up with qualified consultants whose various opinions he won't know how to make good sense of. So Malaysians are forced to foot the tuition bill of the dumb PM to no avail.

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  5. Malaysians are now witnessing a power struggle between Pseudo-Malays and Ori-Malays ie Mamaks vs Bugis.

    Mamaks having tasted power and wealth for 22 years under their Mamakutty dynasty ain't going to let it fall under the Bugis Bangsawan Malays.

    Allahyarham TAR, Tun Ismail, Tun Hussein, Tun Abdullah all saw these in Mamakutty's heart and eyes but unfortunately allahyarham Tun Abdul Razak was blinded by Mamakutty's slogan of demi Bangsa, Agama dan Tanah Air. How qeer it has now come to haunt his son , the current PM, who was once saved by his father to be the next PM after allahyarham Tun Hussein Onn.

    Wouldn't it be right for the son of allahyarham Tun Hussein Onn now to salvage whatever left of ori-Malay power by combining forces with the Bugis PM and get rid of the Mamak's empire and dynasty?

    it's time now to shout Ori-Malay demi Agama, Bangsa dan Negara. Otherwise Malaysians will continue to be ruled under Sri Vijayas and the Majapahits.

    Jangan dibiarkan sejarah kesultanan Melaka berulang! Kan elok kekalkan kuasa dengan kerjasama Maharaja Ming dahulu daripada diancam oleh lanun dan perompak tempatan.


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    Replies
    1. nusantara, majapahit srivijaya adalah salah satu cabang org melayu yg tulen

      pi belajaq sejarah dulu la wei

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    2. Hishammuddin? Equally corrupt! Remember the overturned helicopter incident? Whose helicopter was it? Lim Kang Hoe!! Don't talk about descent please! Quality and principles as long as they are Muslims..

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    3. Anon 09:41

      You must be from Pulau Pinang (Island) where the majority extremely hate the Mamaks who are mostly successful businessmen and restaurant owners. Mamaks are of-course, very vocal against DAP's atrociousness in Pulau Pinang. Mamaks in Pulau Pinang are anti-DAP, too.

      Anwar Ibrahim the sodomite is a purer Mamaks, than Dr.M. Wonder why you adore Anwar so much? Go get a taste of him in Sg.Buloh.

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    4. Only one person use mamakkutty definition in HA blog , MK, TMI, MSN etc ie a RBA known as "Dandy" extremely anti TDM, Umno & Malay

      Delete

    5. Anon :9,41

      Lu manyak benci sama mamak ea aaa ,hali-hali Lu masuk Lu maki sama mamak .

      Kalau Lu betut-betut benci ,mesti mau UBAH maa aa , cekap benci tapi tatak ubah ,apa guna lea aa .

      Hai yaaa Wa manayak sukak olang mau UBAH , Wa sutak nampak itu Uncle Lim , manyak syok maa aa kalau Uncle Lim jadi PM .

      I LOVE PM .

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    6. Anon 9.41
      Kamu cakap macam orang buta sejarah main hentam , bikin malu la , setakat ini semua PM kita sejak dulu sehingga sekarang tiada yang mamak , yang pure mamak DNA 99.9% adalah anuar ibrahim , boleh balik belajar lagi sejarah malaysia.

      Delete
  6. Najib, atas nasihat arwah jj, dikatakan ghairah untuk meniru stail presiden amerika. Poll sebegini adalah salah satu kaedah yang digunapakai secara meluas. Bila keputusannya tidak menyebelahi puak establishment, memang suatu anjakan diperlukan. Sepertimana yang dinyatakan sebelum ini, najib pandang rendah pada orang cina pada pru-13, dan kini pandang rendah pada orang melayu/bumiputera, termasuk ahli-ahli umno sendiri. Mungkin najib puas hati dengan sokongan dan ikrar taat setia yang dilafazkan oleh pihak-pihak berkepentingan. Kononnya sokongan dan ikrar taat setia itu sebagai gambaran sikap akar umbi parti. Adakah tepat dikatakan kbu sebagai pemimpin akar umbi? Atau pemimpin akar umbi yang sebenarnya ialah ketua cawangan (kc)? Siapa yang berhadapan dengan ahli akar umbi setiap hari, kbu atau kc? Setakat hari ini kita belum mendengar sebarang suara sokongan serta ikrar taat setia dari mana-mana kc pun. Maka wajarlah dianggap bahawa sebenarnya najib masih belum beroleh sokongan dan ikrar taat setia dari akar umbi parti. Adakah najib menyangka kc berpuas hati dengan sikapnya yang lebih mengambil berat blogger bangangnya dengan memberi habuan setiap bulan sedangkan cawangan nak bermesyuarat pun susah untuk mendapatkan peruntukan, apatah lagi untuk menjalankan aktiviti. Jangan sangka yang senyap seperti disebut oleh rocky bru itu tidak tahu apa yang berlaku. Di antara blogger bangang dengan kc, najib melebihkan habuan kepada blogger bangang. UMNO bermasalah dari segi organisasi dan ditambah dengan sikap najib yang lebih mengutamakan pihak luar daripada pemimpin parti sendiri. Taburan kc meliputi bandar dan kampung serta kawasan felda seluruh negara. Jika kc tidak puas hati, bolehkah najib merasa dirinya selamat?

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  7. There are some ‘so-called Malays’ who think that they can do away with the Mamaks. They try to glorify their ‘dear-leader’ as a Bugis. I know that for sure these ‘bangangs’ are not so smart just like their ‘dear-leader’ because in trying to pitch one group against the other they will be even weaker. My observation is that the ‘dear-leader’ is weak and that is the reason why he is trying to force others to support him. He couldn’t even clear the doubts in people’s minds and therefore created negative perceptions about himself. My ‘feeling’ is he would have resigned from his post if not because of a powerful ‘jinn’ who is not willing to give up power. Whatever it is, if umno is defeated in the next election then ‘dear-leader’ would have a place in history as the person responsible for it. Actually those who supported him blindly are also jointly responsible for it but no one would remember them. These ‘parasites’ would then unashamedly look for a new ‘dear-leader’ even though that ‘dear-leader’ is from another political party. History has shown us that weak leaders will not lead the people to success and ‘parasites’ have always played a role in the leaders making wrong decisions.

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  8. Kesian Melayu ori yang kebanyakkan duduk kat kampung.

    Realitinya ialah bangsa Melayu hampir 60% dan agama Islam hampir 70% penduduk Malaysia dan semestinya bangsa Melayu akan terus memerintah selama-lamanya jika bijak memimpin dan mentadbir negara. Lain-lain rakyat yang berbangsa dan beragama lain pun dah iktiraf sejak pemerintahan Allahyarham TAR, Tun Ismail, Tun Abdul Razak dan Tun hussein Onn.

    Tetapi sejak penyangak Melayu Mamakutty mengambil tampuk kuasa dengan mempersonakan orang Melayu ori dengan laungan demi Agama, Bangsa dan Tanah Air, kekayaan, jawatan dan kuasa yang dirasai tidak mudah terlepas selepas 22 tahun dan inginkan dinasti Mamak diteruskan selama-lamanya.

    Melayu ori yang cerdik sadikit yang mungkin menjadi persaingan kepada kelansungan dinasti beliau semua dilingkupkan satu per satu seperti Musa Hitam, Anwar, Ghafar Baba, Ku Li, Harun Idris, Mohammed Muhd dll. Sekarang, selepas ancaman terbesar Mamakutty iaitu Anwar telah dimasukkan kat penjara Sg Buloh, sasaran ditumpukan pula kepada PM seorang Melayu ori keturunan bangsawan Bugis yang beristerikan Melayu ori keturunan Minangkabau. Lain-lain sasaran selepas ni jika Panglima Bugis ni jatuh ialah Melayu ori lain seperti Mooheedeen, Zaid , Hisham, Shafie dan tidak terlepas walaupun masih muda ialah Khairy.

    Macam mana kuasa orang Melayu ori boleh menjatuh kepada tangan penyangak Melayu yang tidak pun sampai 2% bangsa Melayu yang diiktirafkan oleh Perlembagaan? Tidak kah ia menunjukkan kelesuan dan layunya orang Melayu yang masih tidur? Melayu ori sebenarnya tak bodoh tetapi terlalu percaya kepada penyangak Melayu seperti zaman kejatuhan pemerintahan KeSultanan Melaka.

    Laungan Pendekar Hang Tu Ah memang tepat. " Tak akan Melayu ori hilang didunia" akan jadi kenyataan jika dibenarkan berterusan Dinasti Sri Vijaya, Majapahit atau Mamakutty yang berselindung dibelakang nama Melayu.

    Orang Melayu ori kat kampong harus bangkit sekarang dan selamatkan Panglima Bangsawan Melayu serta hulubalangnya sebelum tertewas oleh penyangak dan dijadikan hamba seperti zaman dahulu dibawah Empire Sri Vijaya, Majapahit, Siam, Portugis, Belanda, Inggeris dan Jepun. Mengikut agama, tak ada pon satu empire yang beragama Islam.

    Bangun dan jangan tidur terlena lagi. Tak kan tak ada pendekar dan hulubalang Melayu ori lagi?

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    Replies
    1. Konsep apa tu Melayu Ori? Tuturan ahli sejarahwan mana?

      Sebenarnya tamadun orang Melayu Islam dan Kesultanan Melayu itu sudah lama dicorakkan atas akidah Ashairah dan madzhab Shafii berciri Sufi berkurun2 turun temurun.

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  9. Menyakit bontot aku sj tulisan Dandy nie.

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  10. Mamakutty dah derhaka kepada DYMM Agong dan Negara kerana hendak menjatuhkan pemimpin yang dipilih dan disokong parti, BN dan rakyat sebagai PM dengan secara tidak demokratik.

    Dia nak jatuhkan PM macam orang Peranchis buat kat Marie Antoinette ke?

    Atau mencetuskan huru hara dengan menyuruh gengnya menulis secara hasutan kepada rakyat untuk memberontak?

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    Replies
    1. kan kahkahkah kahkahkah........

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  11. Sesuatu yang unik mengenai orang Melayu di Malaysia ini ialah mereka semuanya beragama Islam. Orang Arab pun ada yang Kristian. Lain kehebatan tak ada, cuma kalau pasal BERPECAH-BELAH ORANG MELAYU NIMAR WAHID!

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  12. Let PAS,..UMNO,..and all that is relevant to the Malays burn,.let all the Fanatics..all the cronies raze to the ground with their worthless leaders..lets pray from the ashes rises someone who has Islam,..Malay and Malaysia in his heart..

    ReplyDelete